Copper Thefts Down because of New Laws?

I’m always skeptical when law makers claim their laws have dramatic positive affects on society, and especially on crime. We constantly here about new laws for “The War on Drugs,” “The War on Terror,” and “The War on Poverty;” yet all of these problems persist and in most cases seem to get worse. Nobody is claiming to be conducting a “War on Metal Thefts,” but this is one of those problems that will continue to persist no matter what laws we create.

San Diego’s Union Tribune reports that “A state law that took effect Dec. 1, and a drop in copper prices have all but ended bulk metal theft in the state, officials say.” According to the article, a Fallbrook sheriff's Sgt. states, “I haven't seen any cases of metal theft in a long time, ever since the new law was enacted.”

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jul/29/new-law-lower-prices-put-big-bite-metal-thefts/?metro&zIndex=140058

So the new laws are; scrap-metal dealers buying bulk metal must;
Get a photo ID from anyone selling metal
Delay payment for three days
Pay metal sellers only by check
Photograph metal being sold
Take the seller's thumbprint

These new laws absolutely make sense. It limits thieves’ ability to easily sell stolen metal and it also limits scrap dealers willingness to buy suspected stolen metal. And honestly, many of these scrap-metal dealers had to know they were buying tons of stolen metal and many of them are just as guilty as the metal thieves.

But to say that these new laws will completely stop bulk metal theft, as the article and California officials claim, is rather ignorant and improbable. First of all, the law was only enacted 8 months ago; which means, after thieves find new black markets to sell their stolen metal in, thefts will rise again.

Copper prices are the real reason I am skeptical of this article and its claims. The price of copper has absolutely crashed since the height of the bubble. And in December 2008, when these new scrap-metal laws were passed, copper made a historical low. And because of these historically low prices, metal thefts around the country have declined dramatically. These new laws are necessary, but I wouldn’t let my guard down and leave spools of copper unprotected.

As you can see in the chart below, copper prices are rising again, and it will be interesting to see if thefts rise as well.